The Energy Center of the SKOLKOVO Business School and the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) have Concluded a Framework Agreement on Academic Exchanges and Cooperation
03/17/2017
Tatiana Mitrova, Director of the Energy Center of the SKOLKOVO Business School, spoke at the annual LNG Congress, held in Moscow. Within the framework of this event, dedicated to one of the most strategic directions in the gas industry– the market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) – the Director of the Energy Center shared her vision of export opportunities for Russian LNG in the both the short-term and the long run.
In her report, entitled The Role of LNG for Russia's Export Strategy in the Gas Sector, Ms. Mitrova noted that to a certain extent the most promising direction for Russian gas supplies to foreign markets is the export of pipeline gas to Europe, and essentially LNG exports to all markets. There is no potential for increasing exports to the CIS countries. Pipeline gas projects for Asia are locked onto a single buyer, China, which is committed to a policy of diversification, aiming to maintain a balance between pipeline gas and LNG, and also a balance among various suppliers. "Even if China drastically changes its environmental policy and stops its own production of shale gas, the additional potential for Russian gas exports (in excess of the signed contract ‘Power of Siberia’) will not exceed 10 billion cubic meters. That won’t solve the problem of finding new markets", explained the Director of the Energy Center.
The European gas market, according to Ms. Mitrova, is more promising (especially due to a decline of domestic production). However, even there, the volume of demand for Russian pipeline gas is limited by the desire of consumers to diversify. In this situation, it is the LNG market that opens a pathway for additional growth of Russian gas exports, particularly since LNG is a commodity that (unlike pipeline gas) is not perceived by buyers as ‘Russian’ gas and therefore will not face the political obstacles that gas supplied to Europe via gas pipelines has to deal with. At the same time, the new Russian LNG (Yamal LNG project), as shown in the estimates of Russian and American experts, which Mitrova presented, is quite competitive on the European market. "The absence of a 30 percent export duty for exported LNG is a good reason for gas producers to choose this particular monetization method of gas reserves located in coastal areas", the expert said.
At the same time, the Director of the Energy Center of the SKOLKOVO Business School is convinced that in order to increase the competitiveness of Russian LNG on the external market, one should consistently develop new business models. The fact is that the margins of LNG production are decreasing: competition is increasing, and it is necessary to develop more and more hard-to-reach resources. Meanwhile, the global LNG industry is still in the development stage, trade mechanisms are only just emerging, which allows substantial room for improvisation, and the implementation of new models. "Russian manufacturers can create a very beautiful story on the market, involving a combination of different mechanisms, from long-term contracts to swaps and online trading. LNG is a niche in which there are chances for large growth, and where Russian producers theoretically could become trendsetters. However, to make this a reality, it is necessary to do a great job both in the development of marketing strategies adapted to the LNG market and in the area of cost reduction", said Tatiana Mitrova.
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