Modeling Decarbonization and Adaptation Scenarios: Role in Political and Economic Decision Making
Understanding the need to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change gives rise to the importance of developing model suites that will allow not only for the construction of climate change scenarios, but also the assessment of their impact on human well-being, on individual sectors of the economy, and, above all, on the costs and opportunities of decarbonisation scenarios for entire countries, regions, or sectors.
The study and modelling of complex systems requires an independent and interdisciplinary approach: from knowledge of climatology to specific knowledge of certain economic sectors. Such work is carried out with varying degrees of complexity and detail in both the European Union and Russia.
The world is rapidly moving towards a configuration in which zero emissions by the middle of the twenty-first century or soon after will almost be the standard. Against this background, the mutual exchange of experience in developing realistic scenarios of the economic consequences of climate change and decarbonisation is becoming increasingly relevant. Such mutual enrichment is necessary so that a wide range of stakeholders and decision makers, both public and private, can have full economic understanding of how to implement the Paris Agreement.
Global Climatic Threat and Russian Economy: Searching for the Way
The climatic threat lies, on the one hand, in physical global climate change and its consequences, and on the other, in related structural changes across global energy sector and economy. Scientific community’s concerns about the climate threat are gradually diffusing among politicians, investors, public figures and ordinary people worldwide. They are already taking concrete actions to switch to low-carbon development, backed by impressive resources. These global trends have fully extended to the Russian Federation - both in connection with climate change consequences on its territory, and in connection with the long-term threat to Russian exports of key items, such as oil, refined products, coal, natural gas, metals.
This study summarizes the most relevant facts regarding physics of climate change, its consequences, international climate regulation and the climate policy long-term impact on global energy sector and economy - with a focus on Russia. Possible scenarios of Russia's response to the climate threat are considered, taking into account associated risks and opportunities.
Россия сталкивается с последствиями изменения климата даже в большей степени, чем более южные страны, - хотя прямой экономический ущерб пока не столь значителен, как в густонаселенных районах мира. Кроме того, Россия относится к числу важнейших эмитентов углекислого газа и, в то же время, является крупнейшим мировым экспортером ископаемых топ-лив. Значительное падение выбросов в России в конце XX века и незначительный их рост в XXI веке определяют весомый вклад нашей страны в ограничение глобальных выбросов. Но для достижения конечной цели Парижского соглашения предстоит сокращать выбросы до нуля, и это, с одной стороны, потребует от России реализации собственной стратегии низкоуглеродного развития, а с другой – создает фундаментальную долгосрочную угрозу экспорту энергоресурсов, важнейшему сектору российской экономики.
person Авторы: Алексей Хохлов, Юрий Мельников, Евгений Залюбовский
today 16-17 марта 2020 года
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